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- 71
- "Your ADR are worthless, China will kill ADR share price"
*BABA announces $15B ADR share buyback*
Morons 😂
- 17
- You need to break down AMZN down into its segments. AWS and Prime make up the bulk of their profits. E-commerce and warehousing do not make as much but the structure of the business is quite different to WISH.
I would say that WISH is disrupting Dollar Tree, Thrift/Novelty shops. Wish has a lot of unique items that you won't find anywhere else.
I am very bullish. They utilize customer payments and long shipping times to effectively get free financing for their operations so in the long run they won't need capital to keep the business running. Right now they have a huge marketing spend so you want to watch that along with MAU growth, and perhaps AOV if that info is published.
The biggest threat to WISH is not AMZN but BABA. AliExpress sells a lot of similar products, they own Cai Niao which is basically like the global version of Amazon warehouses on steroids. Their goal is to get the majority of packages delivered from the warehouse in China to your door in 72 hours. I have used both Wish and AliExpress recently, and AliExpress had gotten a lot faster, whereas my Wish producs never arrived and I had to apply for a refund.
I am long both WISH and BABA, but WISH has a lot in the works (private label through Wish Select, free shipping through Wish Access, etc) which can make them competitive. PT: $69
- 16
- BABA is on sale right now.
- 15
- BABA is one of my biggest positions, still adding new jan 2023 calls. The fundamentals are strong, the sentiment is not,. But fundamentals win in the end
- 11
- Those who went ballz deep into BABA, you have my condolences
- 77
- MVST to $30
edit: This is made by /u/mvst_100_or_bust
, and I added some other information to consolidate this into a massive-1 reddit post. Sorry for the wall of text, but there are sources everywhere and all of the information is verifiable.
part 1 part 2 part 3 part 4 part 5
Now, for the part 6 with consolidated DD:
DD part 6:
Before I talk about Microvast, I have to talk about how Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) came about. It is the only way anyone will truly understand any of the following DD. CATL was founded in 2011, IPO'd in 2018 for $2.1 Billion, and ended that same day at a valuation of $12.3 Billion. Today, it's worth $120 Billion. How did this explosive growth happen with a company where 99% of its revenue was only coming from China? Well, you have to go back before 2011.
CATL was spun off of Amperex Technology in 2011, with Amperex and CATL both being founded by Billionaire Zeng Yuqun. Founded in 1998, Amperex's growth was driven by its ability to manufacture batteries for consumer products (e.g phones, laptops, etc.) based on licenses they acquired from American institutions and companies like Valence Technology. It was such a success and they started producing batteries for top-tier companies like Apple. Eventually, Amperex was bought out by the TDK Corporation in 2005, becoming a subsidy ran by Yuqun.
Then in 2011 CATL was spun off by Yuqun, based on the same exact strategy of purchasing advanced R&D licensing to manufacture superior EV batteries. However, it wasn't without help. They rode the coattails of the CCP's investment of over $60 Billion USD in electrifying China. To be eligible for any of the money on the table, everything had to be domestic, including the battery supply. On the supply side, there was little competition, with large Chinese automotive OEMs deciding to only produce batteries for themselves. CATL filled in the gap, their first big break being with BMW in 2013, eventually, CATL became the largest battery manufacturer in the world, in the world's largest EV market.
Microvast, spinning off a chemical and material science company sold to DOW Chemical, sustained itself in a competitive industry. Unfortunately, it did not have as much success as CATL. Why that is, is for another post but major factors include high internal R&D costs, being too ahead of their time in regards to fast charging, and generally how subsidies were constructed for heavy vehicles in China despite making the most economical sense.
With all of this out of the way, now we can actually talk about Microvast and its latest technology.
But one more thing, it's best that I clear up relevant concepts relating to battery technology. While I expect most here to have a general understanding of how a battery works, I don't expect most to understand the underlying intricacies and nuances relevant but important to understanding battery technology. Below comment on a small fraction of concepts, I have noticed that is poorly understood among retail traders.
1. Battery technology is a multi-criteria optimization problem
No one battery chemistry is perfect for all applications. Typically you are looking at several different characteristics of a battery such as energy density, power density, cost, safety, cycle life, efficiency, internal impedance, etc. Hopefully, you get the point. The end all be all is not energy density. More often than not an improvement in one metric causes a worsening in others. knowing the application at hand is very important. Even across EVs, there's a vast difference in needs when it comes to battery performance requirements.
2. Energy density (or any metric per mass) differs between levels of manufacturing
If you're not specifying energy density by the level of subcomponents, cell, pack, module, or system, in my eyes it is meaningless. Below, courtesy of Löbberding et al. shows the vast difference you can get at the cell level (Blue) and system-level (orange).